Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Denver Broncos: At the Bye

the Denver Broncos are 3-3 at the Week 7 Bye of the 2012 season.
Here we are, week 7 of the NFL season, and the Denver Broncos are 3-3 after an incredible second half vs. the San Diego Chargers on Monday night. The team is feeling pretty good right now, and they should. Coming back despite what felt like a million mistakes in the first half against a division foe/rival and, in theory, against a decent team on the road, Bronco fans will take it.

So what are my thoughts on this 3-3 team? Well, before I can talk about that, I feel we need to discuss the entire NFL season so far.

After the win against the Chargers on 10/15/2012, The Broncos can celebrate... a little.
The above listing of standings is from the playoff picture page at nfl.com as of Tuesday, October 16th, 2012. What do you notice? First of all, in the AFC, there are only two teams above .500 (The Texans and the Ravens, who, coincidentally, play each other in week 7). There are seven teams (of the 16 in the AFC) that are 3-3, with two more at 2-something (due to bye weeks). So. really, the AFC is wide open right now; no one is really taking off. I'm loving the parity in the NFL this year. The NFC has a little more seperation, with one team at 4-2 not making the cut if the playoffs were today (I see San Fran still making the playoffs, so don't get too excited). The final thing I will mention is regarding the Broncos' AFC west opponents. Right now, the Kansas City Chiefs are in shambles at the bottom of the rankings with the Oakland Raiders not doing much better (though they have been more in the game recently). That means the AFC West is shaping up to be a two team race between the Broncos and the Chargers... and with the win last night, the Broncos own the division with a better division record... Still, anything can happen and EVERY team needs to keep playing... Lot of football left this season.

Based on last seasons records, the Broncos are expected to have the second toughest schedule in the NFL (second to the New York Giants). Based on this season, the Broncos have played the fifth-toughest schedule in the NFL to this point, defined by opponents' won-lost percentage (.588). The Broncos have defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 19-31, Chargers 35-24, and Raiders 6-36, and have lost to the Atlanta Falcons (in Atlanta) 21-27, the Houston Texans (in Denver) 31-25, and the New England Patriots (in Foxborough) 21-31. According to the ESPN power rankings for week 7, the Broncos have lost to the #1, #2, and #7 teams (two of those while the Broncos were on the road), and defeated the the #14, #16, and #29 teams (two of those wins at home). The Broncos are ranked #12 this week. What does this mean? Well, it means the Broncos are winning the games they should against "lesser opponents", which is something you have to do to be a contender. But you have to finish games, which they failed to do during all three losses... the good news? They did it last week against the Chargers, which is a step in the right direction.

In theory, the Broncos schedule "gets easier" for a bit (they have what stands as the easiest remaining schedule defined by opponents' won-lost percentage (.339))., with games against the 1-4 New Orleans Saints (in Denver), the 1-4 Carolina Panthers (in Charlotte), and the 1-5 Chiefs (both home and away) to name a few, but the one thing the Broncos CANNOT do is play to a lesser teams level. They have to keep the momentum and progress going if they want to do well this season.

The defense will make or break the Broncos' season.
What else do the Broncos have to do this season to succeed? Well, first of all, the defense needs to improve. Denver only has six interceptions, four coming against the Chargers, to be ranked in the middle of the pack at 15 (of 32). The Broncos are third in forced fumbles with eight, but they need to recover them (only four have been recovered, putting them at 12th overall). I'm not sure what the third down conversion rate is for the Broncos, but it seems high, especially in the losses. There are good things happening that the Broncos can work on, including their 18 sacks (fourth best in the league), but forcing turnovers is how you're going to rest your defense and get Peyton Manning and the offense on the field.

Speaking of the offense, it seems to be coming along, but 2012 is turning into 2011, where scoring for the Broncos starts happening later in the game rather than sooner. It seems that most of the games have involved an attempt at a comeback, which is not easy to do and not something any team wants to rely on. Remember the Mike Shanahan days when the team would come out fast? The Broncos need to do that (without tapering off as the game goes on). There's a good mix of old and young talent, and things seem to be clicking more and more every week. Let's hope that continues. Bigs ups to the Offensive line, which has only allowed nine sacks (seventh best in the NFL) and 21 hits on the Quarterback (ninth best in the NFL).

Not going to really touch on the special teams. Yes, they screwed up royally in the Chargers game, but otherwise, they've been mediocre (nothing bad, nothing great). Love to see a little more out of them, but as long as they don't allow turnovers and scoring, the fans will be content.

John Fox and the coaching staff (including Manning) have adjusted well in the second half...
Some props to John Fox and the coaching staff for making great adjustments at halftime during games, but they need to get things going just as well if they want to contend. Something I hope they remember: there are MANY playmakers on offense. You can run the ball, but when you have Peyton Manning throwing to Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, Jacob Tamme, Joel Dreessen, and Brandon Stokley, to a name a few, feel free to throw the ball a little more (especially on third down).

So, if the team continues on the path, I see good things happening. I feel the Broncos will win the division, especially after the statement win against the Chargers in week six. Saying that, I'm guessing that the Broncos will go 10-6. Looking at the remaining schedule, I could see the Broncos losing to the Cincinnati Bengals (in Cincinnati), the Baltimore Ravens (in Baltimore), and another team due to a bad week. With that said though, I could see Denver beating every team remaining on their schedule, depending how they prepare and plan. Thrilled that the final two games of the year are at home vs. the Cleveland Browns and the Chiefs. Hopefully, the Broncos will be in good shape before those games. I don't think they'll get a bye in the first week of the playoffs, but I could see them winning the first round at home and the second round elsewhere. Guess we'll just have to see.

There you go, my Denver Bronco analysis thus far. For additional Bronco coverage, make sure to follow the AFC west blog on ESPN, along with the Denver post. Twitter has some great follows, including the more obvious handles like @JohnElway and @Denver_Broncos, but @VicLombardi, @BroncosGameday, @MileHighReport, and @bylindsayhjones are all great follows that you might not think of (the AFC West blog from ESPN can also be found at @ESPN_afcwest). Love to hear what you think as well, so share away... But the one thing we can all agree on...

GO BRONCOS!


GO BRONCOS!

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